Adobe’s holiday sales forecast came out recently. It says that sales will grow by 2.5% from November 1 to December 31, 2022. Even though that number isn’t very impressive, Adobe gave some background to help us understand how it will affect online sellers.
In order to make its annual forecast, Adobe looks at more than 1 trillion visits to US websites. It said that Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale is a big part of its forecast because it will get some people to start shopping early, before what Adobe thinks of as the start of the holiday shopping season (November 1st).
Adobe’s Report
The report says that the holiday season will also be affected by an uncertain economic climate. This is because shoppers will have to deal with higher prices offline (for food, petrol, and housing – all part of the ongoing cost of living crisis).
But Adobe Vice President Patrick Brown said, “The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week. Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand”.
Adobe said that last year’s holiday shopping season was 8.5% bigger than the year before, even though people were still worried about going out to shops because of the pandemic.
What does Adobe have to Say?
Here’s what Adobe said about when online shopping will happen this year:
“Cyber Monday was expected to remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $11.2 billion in spending, increasing 5.1% YoY.
“By comparison, Black Friday online sales were projected to grow by just 1% YoY at $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1% YoY.”
Adobe’s study looks at more than 1 trillion visits to retail sites in the United States, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories. Visit the Adobe website to read the full press release.